Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 17 claims graded, 88% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-08-20: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-08-20T10:10:34.155289+00:00

Thesis

• statement: Standing-neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Overnight tape is synchronized mega-cap positioning, not a single-name reset: AAPL bounced 2.19% with no thesis-changing catalyst, GOOGL and MSFT were essentially unchanged, and the next fundamental checkpoint is the October 27–28 earnings prints.

• frame: Quiet-period holding pattern — three mega-caps, one tape

• why_now: AAPL's 2.19% overnight bounce is the only notable print; GOOGL (+0.15%) and MSFT (+0.56%) barely moved, all three carry a convergence score of 1, and earnings remain ~68 days out.

• AAPL last traded at $316.83, up 2.19%, versus GOOGL at $344.72 (+0.15%) and MSFT at $484.31 (+0.56%). [ev_quote_5911cfd3] [ev_quote_1414c2ab] [ev_quote_9da53d96]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence_signal score of 1. [ev_conv_bb94f720] [ev_conv_e65a981a] [ev_conv_3f3653e3]

• MSFT and GOOGL are scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27; AAPL is scheduled for 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_bd3620d3] [ev_earn_9bc0e097] [ev_earn_9e69398c]

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, AAPL's Street book (24 buy / 14 hold / 3 sell) is more mixed than MSFT (41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell) or GOOGL (42 buy / 8 hold / 0 sell). [ev_rec_7ca7d967] [ev_rec_1d0d9cfa] [ev_rec_c6a69dd3]

• AAPL will still trade above $300 as of 2026-09-19. [ev_quote_5911cfd3]

• AAPL will not advance another 5% over the next 10 days from the $316.83 last print. [ev_quote_5911cfd3] [ev_conv_bb94f720]

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight session moves vs Street books

• value: AAPL +2.19% to $316.83

• comparison: MSFT +0.56% to $484.31; GOOGL +0.15% to $344.72. Recs as of 2026-08-01: GOOGL 42 buy/8 hold/0 sell, MSFT 41/5/0, AAPL 24/14/3

• period: into 2026-08-20

• AAPL last traded at $316.83, up 2.19% overnight, the largest move among AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL. [ev_quote_5911cfd3] [ev_quote_9da53d96] [ev_quote_1414c2ab]

• MSFT last traded at $484.31, up 0.56% overnight. [ev_quote_9da53d96]

• GOOGL last traded at $344.72, up 0.15% overnight. [ev_quote_1414c2ab]

• As of 2026-08-01, analyst recommendations stood at 42 buy / 8 hold / 0 sell for GOOGL, 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell for MSFT, and 24 buy / 14 hold / 3 sell for AAPL. [ev_rec_c6a69dd3] [ev_rec_1d0d9cfa] [ev_rec_7ca7d967]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT, GOOGL, and AAPL earnings prints

• metric: EPS vs consensus

• timeframe: October 27–28, 2026

• Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple are scheduled to report earnings within a 24-hour window on October 27–28, 2026. [ev_earn_bd3620d3] [ev_earn_9bc0e097] [ev_earn_9e69398c]

• Microsoft will beat consensus EPS at its October 27, 2026 earnings print. [ev_earn_bd3620d3] [ev_rec_1d0d9cfa]

• Alphabet will beat consensus EPS at its October 27, 2026 earnings print. [ev_earn_9bc0e097] [ev_rec_c6a69dd3]

• Apple will beat consensus EPS at its October 28, 2026 earnings print. [ev_earn_9e69398c] [ev_rec_7ca7d967]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.44 (AAPL), 0.42 (GOOGL), 0.52 (MSFT)

• comparison: vs base_rate

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has the highest calibrated 5-day up probability (0.52) among the three names, reflecting consistent recent EPS beats: +0.41 (Jun 2026), +0.13 (Mar 2026), +0.11 (Dec 2025), +0.39 (Sep 2025). [ev_fundamentals_2edbafda] [ev_fundamentals_d1e8d525]

• AAPL and GOOGL show depressed 5-day up probabilities (0.44 and 0.42 respectively) despite mixed recent EPS surprise patterns. AAPL has beaten twice in the last four quarters; GOOGL has missed the last two quarters after a large beat in Sep 2025. [ev_fundamentals_fc50b2df] [ev_fundamentals_13bf7ff8] [ev_fundamentals_4a99060d] [ev_fundamentals_c4ccac80]

• GOOGL's recent EPS miss streak (−0.13 in Jun 2026, −0.09 in Mar 2026) follows a volatile pattern (−0.71 beat in Sep 2025), suggesting elevated forecast uncertainty and a calibrated 5-day up probability below the 0.53 base rate. [ev_fundamentals_4a99060d] [ev_fundamentals_c4ccac80]

Sources

• [ev_conv_3f3653e3] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_bb94f720] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_e65a981a] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_e0e01e9d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_441d8e43] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_39f7f7bf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_9e1bcf41] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_ac303e54] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_25d7fce7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_65e7db1d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_bd4390a6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_b993808f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_b6768712] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_fef6b74e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_defe9bd2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_430d4f05] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_1742040c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_d2aa215c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_44e8f987] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_b676889f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_6d79af95] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_9f259efc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_3fbc93a3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_5f534179] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_1e241b60] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_quote_5911cfd3] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_9da53d96] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_1414c2ab] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_profile_b4cfb512] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_1d0d9cfa] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_905423f4] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_7ca7d967] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_9ea24023] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_c6a69dd3] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_bd3620d3] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_9e69398c] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_9bc0e097] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_f5a20ec1] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-alphabet-inc-googl-shares-acquired-by-generali-investments-management-co-llc-2026-08-19
• [ev_news_2352b643] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+%28GOOGL%29+Opinions+on+Recent+AI+Developments+and+Earnings
• [ev_news_e0df639a] news_headline — https://edition.cnn.com/markets/stocks/GOOGL
• [ev_news_c68477a2] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-23-undervalued-following-25b-ai
• [ev_news_c883523a] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/17/top-investors-warn-google-is-now-a-very-different-company-than-it-was-2-years-ago
• [ev_news_ef80ad92] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938443-alphabet-stock-a-berkshire-hathaway-style-compounder-hiding-in-plain-sight
• [ev_news_1984e0fb] news_headline — https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news
• [ev_news_632646cb] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_4b77bee9] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/q2-earnings-roundup-microsoft-nasdaq-191733756.html
• [ev_news_95828bee] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:58d49f7cf094b:0-can-microsoft-stock-benefit-from-expanding-microsoft-365-seats
• [ev_news_8bf7edde] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/MSFT
• [ev_news_fbf9d338] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-stock-and-2-ai-infrastructure-picks-for-rising-dat
• [ev_news_50d87aa5] news_headline — https://www.moomoo.com/stock/MSFT-US/earnings?chain_id=Name1K9-3FXPhg.1l4tp40&global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13764%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A57%2C%22f%22%3A%22www.moomoo.com%2Fstock%2FDYFSF-US%2Ffinancials-cash-flow%22%7D
• [ev_news_80740a5a] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-faces-a-valuation-test-following-earnings-and-pro
• [ev_news_fadaa083] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Apple+Stock+%28AAPL%29+Opinions+on+Recent+Earnings+and+Analyst+Downgrades
• [ev_news_b8f5e72c] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/AAPL
• [ev_news_f86b6a3b] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/13/apple-dropped-by-5-after-earning-history-says-this
• [ev_news_9ebb1cf3] news_headline — https://financebuzz.com/news/apple-stock-drop-earnings
• [ev_news_ad485dba] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-apple-stock-rallying-today-93CH-4867792
• [ev_news_1df9f78a] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/18/what-bofa-and-morgan-stanley-are-saying-about-apple-aapl-stock-in-august
• [ev_fundamentals_fc50b2df] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_13bf7ff8] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_4a99060d] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_c4ccac80] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_2edbafda] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_d1e8d525] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT